Vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change: The development of a pantropical Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to inform sub-national decision making

As climate change continues to exert increasing pressure upon the livelihoods and agricultural sector of many developing and developed nations, a need exists to understand and prioritise at the sub national scale which areas and communities are most vulnerable. The purpose of this study is to develop a robust, rigorous and replicable methodology that is flexible to data limitations and spatially prioritizes the vulnerability of agriculture and rural livelihoods to climate change. We have applied the methodology in Vietnam, Uganda and Nicaragua, three contrasting developing countries that are particularly threatened by climate change. We conceptualize vulnerability to climate change following the widely adopted combination of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity. We used Ecocrop and Maxent ecological models under a high emission climate scenario to assess the sensitivity of the main food security and cash crops to climate change. Using a participatory approach, we identified exposure to natural hazards and the main indicators of adaptive capacity, which were modelled and analysed using geographic information systems. We finally combined the components of vulnerability using equal-weighting to produce a crop specific vulnerability index and a final accumulative score. We have mapped the hotspots of climate change vulnerability and identified the underlying driving indicators. For example, in Vietnam we found the Mekong delta to be one of the vulnerable regions due to a decline in the climatic suitability of rice and maize, combined with high exposure to flooding, sea level rise and drought. However, the region is marked by a relatively high adaptive capacity due to developed infrastructure and comparatively high levels of education. The approach and information derived from the study informs public climate change policies and actions, as vulnerability assessments are the bases of any National Adaptation Plans (NAP), National Determined Contributions (NDC) and for accessing climate finance

Management of intrinsic quality characteristics for high-value specialty coffees of heterogeneous hillside landscapes

Tropical hillsides are ecologically and socially diverse with a multitude of small- to medium-sized farms that offer a potential treasure chest of high-value market crops. Specialty coffees, for example, earn a substantial price premium and are therefore a promising opportunity for farmers. Coffee quality is determined by the natural environment and farm management practices. To sell high-priced coffee, farmers must produce beans desired by consumers who are willing to pay more for specific quality profiles. A targeting of the production practices to suit the continuously-changing market demands is necessary; the focus must be on controlling the processes that determine the quality characteristics. The present research aimed to develop a framework to manage the intrinsic coffee quality of heterogeneous hillside landscapes. In a two-tiered approach, firstly spatial prediction models were developed and tested to identify the comparative advantage of environmental niches and secondly systematic farm management practices were developed and tested to turn the comparative advantage of farmers into a competitive advantage. Commercial sensorial data of the two Colombian departments of Cauca and Antioquia, of the Veracruz department in Mexico and of the five coffee growing regions in Honduras were used to develop and test the framework. The results suggest that the framework is highly viable; the information generated is highly novel, is high-medium actionable and is medium deliverable to stakeholders. The specific conclusions derived are: (1) The production environment of coffee (natural environment, agronomic management and post-harvest processes) is variable over space. (2) Beverage quality of coffee is dependent on the production environment. The combination of decisive quality factors varies from location to location, and so does the contribution of each factor. (3) Production factors can be identified and their impact quantified. Subsequently the factors can be systematically controlled and managed to improve product quality. (4) Site-specific systematic and cyclic quality control processes are required to decrease produce variability and deliver a product sought by the market. (5) The approach is twofold, firstly the identification of suitable environmental niches followed by definition of site-specific management. (6) Farm management interventions are not always statistically significant but often relevant for farmers. (7) Qualitative quality-control methods using commercial data are viable indicators for quality measurements so long as consistent, skilled evaluators (cuppers) are selected in preliminary testing.Management der intrinsischen Qualitätscharakteristiken von hochwertigen Spezialitätenkaffees aus heterogenen Hanglagen Der Kaffeeanbau in tropischen Hanglagen variiert ökologisch sehr stark und ist sozial besonders geprägt durch eine Vielzahl von kleinen und mittleren landwirtschaftlichen Betrieben, welche ein hohes Potential für die Produktion von hochwertigen Agrarprodukten haben. Spezialitätenkaffees werden mit einem Mehrwert belohnt und sind deshalb eine vielversprechende Option für diese Bauern. Kaffeequalität ist wesentlich durch die natürlichen Umweltbedingungen und die agronomischen Praktiken bestimmt. Um hochwertige Kaffees vermarkten zu können, müssen die Bauern einen Rohkaffee produzieren, welcher vom Markt nachgefragt wird und für welchen der Konsument bereit ist, einen entsprechenden Aufpreis zuzahlen. Deshalb ist eine kontrollierte gezielte Produktion notwendig um mit den sich konstant ändernden Marktpräferenzen Schritt halten zu können. Die vorliegende Arbeit hat zum Ziel ein Rahmenwerk vorzulegen, welches es erlaubt, die Kaffeequalität aus heterogenen Hanglagen einschätzen, kontrollieren und beeinflussen zu können. Im ersten Teil der Dissertation werden räumliche Vorhersagemodelle entwickelt und getestet, um den komparativen Vorteil von Umweltnischen zu bestimmen. Im zweiten Teil erfolgt die Analyse der systematischen Anbaupraktiken, um den komparativen Standortvorteil der Bauern auch kompetitiv nutzen zu können. Kommerzielle sensorische Daten von Kaffees aus den kolumbianischen Departamentos (entspricht Bundesländern in Deutschland) Cauca und Antioquia, aus dem Departamento Veracruz in Mexiko, und aus den fünf Kaffeebauzonen in Honduras wurden verwendet, um das Rahmenwerk zu entwickeln und zu testen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das Rahmenwerk höchst brauchbar und die mit dem Rahmenwerk generierte Information höchst neuartig, hoch bis mittelmässig umsetzbar, und mittelmässig zugänglich ist. Insgesamt lassen sich folgende Schlussfolgerungen ziehen: (1) Das Produktionsumfeld (natürliche Umwelt, agronomisches Umfeld und Nachernteverfahren) ist standortsvariable. (2) Die Tassenqualität hängt vom Produktionsumfeld ab. Die Kombination der qualitätsbeeinflussenden Faktoren variiert von Standort zu Standort und ebenfalls der Beitrag der einzelnen Faktoren. (3) Limitierende Produktionsfaktoren konnten identifiziert und deren Einfluss quantifiziert werden. Dies erlaubt eine systematische Kontrolle und Beeinflussung einzelner Faktoren, um die Produktqualität verbessern zu können. (4) Ortsspezifische, systematische und zyklische Qualitätskontrollprozesse sind notwendig, um die Variabilität der Produktqualität zu verringern und ein vom Markt nachgefragtes Produkt herzustellen zu können. (5) Die Herangehensweise beinhaltet zwei Teilschritte. Zuerst werden geeignete Nischen identifiziert und darauf basierend das ortspezifische Qualitätsmanagement definiert. (6) Managementinterventionen sind nicht immer statistisch signifikant, aber trotzdem oft relevant für den Bauern. (7) Qualitative Methoden zur Qualitätskontrolle, basierend auf kommerziellen Daten, sind brauchbare Indikatoren für die Erfassung der Tassenqualität, so lange gut ausgebildete Verkoster in Voruntersuchungen ausgewählt wurden

Carbon assessment for cocoa cropping systems in Lampung, Indonesia

Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) production plays a key role in the economics of Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest cocoa bean producing country. With more than 1.6 million hectares of land planted with cocoa, small improvements in emissions efficiencies or carbon sequestration opportunities can have a relatively large mitigating effect on emissions from agroforestry and land use. The carbon assessment in Lampung, Sumatra was done to evaluate environmental impacts of cocoa as a commodity through estimation of carbon stock and carbon footprint, GHG emissions during the cultivation of cocoa in different cropping systems. Segmentation of cropping systems along density of intercropping, inputs use intensity and residue management practices identify opportunities for climate smart practices tailored to each segment

Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum

Climate has been changing in the last three decades and will continue changing regardless of any mitigation strategy. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and hence is highly sensitive to climatic changes and climate variability. Nevertheless, there is a knowledge gap when agricultural researchers intend to assess the production of minor crops for which data or models are not available. Therefore, we integrated the current expert knowledge reported in the FAO-EcoCrop database, with the basic mechanistic model (also named EcoCrop), originally developed by Hijmans et al. (2001). We further developed the model, providing calibration and evaluation procedures. To that aim, we used sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench) as a case study and both calibrated EcoCrop for the sorghum crop and analyzed the impacts of the SRES-A1B 2030s climate on sorghum climatic suitability. The model performed well, with a high true positive rate (TPR) and a low false negative rate (FNR) under present conditions when assessed against national and subnational agricultural statistics (min TPR = 0.967, max FNR = 0.026). The model predicted high sorghum climatic suitability in areas where it grows optimally and matched the sorghum geographic distribution fairly well. Negative impacts were predicted by 2030s. Vulnerabilities in countries where sorghum cultivation is already marginal are likely (with a high degree of certainty): the western Sahel region, southern Africa, northern India, and the western coast of India are particularly vulnerable. We highlight the considerable opportunity of using EcoCrop to assess global food security issues, broad climatic constraints and regional crop-suitability shifts in the context of climate change and the possibility of coupling it with other large-area approaches

Carbon assessment for Robusta coffee production systems in Vietnam: a case study in Dak Lak

Carbon assessments have proliferated to identify climate friendly practices in Arabica producing systems, though little attention is given to Robusta. In this study, we evaluated the climate impact of Robusta production via quantification of carbon stock and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the intensive shaded and unshaded coffee farms of the world’s largest Robusta producing region, Vietnam’s Central Highlands. We find due to the linear relationship between fertilizer use and yields, emissions from input use on a per unit product basis are not significantly different between the intensive and less intensive systems. However, when accounting for carbon sequestered in shade and coffee trees, the less intensive systems are carbon positive (sequestering more than they emit) per unit of green coffee bean produced

How can we develop value chain programs that address climate risks?

The “How To Do Note: Climate change risk assessments in value chain projects” provides guidance for the design and development of climate-smart value chains. A number of tools and resources are available to support decision makers at various stages in value chain development. Mainstreaming climate risk management approaches in different stages of value chain development helps increase resilience of smallholder farmers. The IFAD-CCAFS learning alliance generates and shares knowledge to support IFAD’s programming needs

Predicting the future climatic suitability for cocoa farming of the world's leading producer countries, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0774-

Climate vulnerability and adaptation of the smallholder cocoa and coffee value chains in Liberia

Liberia is one of the world’s poorest countries. Efforts to rebuild its economy after several years of internal conflict were partially set back by the 2014–5 Ebola crisis. The country’s lowland humid climate and land-use history suggest a potential to increase the production of cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and coffee (Coffea spp.) to generate income and employment for smallholder farmers, and these value chains are, therefore, the focus of projects funded by donors including the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the World Bank. This study analyzes the present and projected future climatic conditions of the country and compares them with conditions in other cocoa- and coffee-producing parts of Africa. Soil conditions, farming systems and supply chain characteristics are also briefly reviewed. On the basis of this information, a comprehensive strategy to reduce the vulnerability of the cocoa and coffee supply chains to climate change and ensure their future viability is proposed